***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.7 20.6 1.2 74.6 65.5 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.6 16.8 20.7 1.2 73.8 65.9 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.7 20.3 0.9 67.9 62.4 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.3 18.0 0.4 59.8 57.9 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 17.6 0.5 60.4 59.4 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.1 15.7 0.4 63.3 58.3 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.1 17.3 20.8 1.3 74.9 66.9 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 9.8 10.0 16.0 1.0 76.8 67.6 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.7 18.1 0.9 70.6 63.8 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.4 16.5 0.8 73.6 64.4 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.8 17.1 0.6 63.8 61.1 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.7 17.1 0.9 72.8 66.9 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.5 16.1 0.5 63.1 60.0 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.9 16.8 18.0 0.8 67.6 62.2 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 18.0 17.9 19.2 0.8 68.0 63.8 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 16.8 0.4 58.7 57.5 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.6 19.8 0.9 66.1 62.1 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.8 15.8 0.8 72.3 63.6 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.7 16.9 20.5 1.1 73.2 65.3 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.0 10.8 13.8 0.7 70.3 62.8 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.1 19.5 0.9 68.2 63.3 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.7 19.6 0.7 65.5 60.0 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.3 20.1 1.1 73.4 65.7 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.6 17.9 0.8 70.0 62.6 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.3 18.8 0.9 69.0 63.8 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.5 16.4 0.7 64.4 63.1 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.5 16.7 19.7 1.2 74.9 67.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 18.4 0.5 61.7 58.9 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.3 15.1 0.8 72.0 64.0 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.9 17.2 20.9 1.2 73.8 66.1 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------