***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.7 18.9 -0.2 47.4 46.8 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.6 19.0 -0.2 47.9 46.1 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 16.5 17.2 18.6 -0.4 44.5 43.3 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.3 16.3 -0.8 34.4 38.4 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.6 15.9 -0.7 36.7 39.7 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.7 14.4 -0.4 40.6 43.6 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.2 19.1 -0.2 48.5 46.6 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.5 14.4 -0.1 48.9 48.2 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.5 15.3 16.4 -0.4 43.0 44.0 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.1 14.7 14.9 -0.4 42.7 44.4 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 13.6 14.4 15.5 -0.5 39.5 42.5 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.1 15.5 0.0 50.5 49.2 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.0 14.7 -0.3 43.8 45.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 14.7 15.3 16.4 -0.5 39.4 42.9 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.8 16.5 17.6 -0.4 44.6 43.5 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.9 15.3 -0.6 38.9 41.4 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.5 15.9 18.1 -0.7 40.1 39.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 12.3 13.0 14.2 -0.4 39.5 43.8 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.7 18.8 -0.2 48.4 46.1 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 8.4 8.8 12.3 -0.4 39.0 44.7 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.9 17.8 -0.4 43.7 44.2 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 14.1 14.8 17.9 -0.7 37.9 39.1 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.8 18.4 -0.2 49.1 47.1 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 14.4 15.2 16.2 -0.5 40.4 42.9 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.9 17.2 -0.3 44.3 45.3 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.9 15.0 -0.2 45.7 47.8 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 18.1 -0.1 49.0 47.8 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.8 -0.7 38.0 39.8 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 11.5 12.2 13.5 -0.4 40.1 44.5 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.1 19.2 -0.2 48.8 47.0 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------