***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.8 19.4 0.7 58.1 61.3 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.5 19.3 0.7 57.2 59.7 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.4 18.1 19.4 0.6 58.9 60.7 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 13.0 12.8 16.7 0.3 50.9 54.4 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.1 16.9 0.3 51.3 54.8 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.4 14.5 0.3 54.9 55.5 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.3 19.9 1.0 61.6 65.3 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.8 9.2 15.0 0.8 64.2 63.8 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.8 17.7 0.7 60.3 61.8 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.5 15.7 0.5 58.3 60.0 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 15.2 14.9 16.1 0.0 48.4 50.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.3 13.3 15.7 0.6 60.6 60.6 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.1 15.1 -0.1 50.7 50.2 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.0 17.3 0.5 57.8 57.6 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 16.8 16.9 18.8 0.4 60.2 58.6 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.2 15.9 0.0 49.8 50.8 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.5 16.5 18.7 0.5 54.2 56.5 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.4 14.7 0.3 54.0 55.3 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.1 19.4 0.8 61.7 62.6 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.6 10.0 12.8 0.6 62.4 61.1 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 14.9 15.2 19.0 0.5 57.8 59.5 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.4 19.1 0.7 60.0 59.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.1 19.6 1.1 68.6 68.6 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.7 17.0 0.3 53.4 55.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.2 18.1 0.2 53.0 54.4 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.3 14.9 0.4 58.8 57.9 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.3 18.6 0.4 54.9 56.9 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.5 17.5 0.4 57.7 57.4 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 12.4 12.9 14.2 0.6 60.6 60.4 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.5 19.8 0.9 60.3 63.8 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------