***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 76.5 101.2 63.1 158.8 80.1 66.4 26.1 32.9 53.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 65.1 74.6 58.7 158.5 79.3 65.7 28.7 48.7 56.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 60.2 84.0 65.9 164.3 82.6 67.2 32.4 40.0 50.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 82.6 97.2 60.9 149.8 78.0 66.0 37.5 55.4 67.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 67.8 80.5 58.9 152.9 79.7 66.4 27.5 43.1 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 72.3 80.5 65.2 140.4 75.0 65.2 39.9 55.5 70.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 64.8 75.5 59.4 158.8 79.8 66.2 22.7 39.0 54.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 103.8 118.4 70.3 154.9 80.5 69.4 44.1 70.3 98.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 56.9 68.0 63.4 150.4 79.6 66.2 30.0 39.5 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 91.7 109.5 74.7 154.8 81.3 68.2 33.8 55.2 86.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 65.7 77.3 54.3 151.0 79.2 66.5 29.2 40.4 55.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 79.6 93.2 53.2 150.9 78.4 67.8 35.9 51.8 69.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 51.4 57.9 55.2 152.3 79.6 66.9 22.9 38.5 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 104.7 120.4 79.9 151.7 78.2 66.1 39.0 57.9 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 60.2 86.3 52.5 161.8 82.2 67.4 16.5 25.6 45.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 51.5 61.2 55.3 153.4 79.2 67.2 23.8 33.0 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 71.7 85.6 56.5 146.7 78.0 64.4 34.9 39.2 62.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 92.3 104.0 85.1 150.0 80.3 67.2 38.1 60.7 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 73.7 91.3 60.6 160.5 80.7 65.8 34.8 44.3 68.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 67.3 76.4 83.4 145.1 80.1 67.3 37.0 52.9 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 70.6 89.3 62.2 153.8 79.8 66.2 31.8 36.5 51.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 74.7 83.5 58.3 143.8 78.5 63.7 39.1 51.9 60.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 67.1 78.5 63.8 159.3 80.9 65.5 31.3 45.2 60.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 75.5 92.9 78.3 159.0 81.2 67.1 43.4 50.1 65.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 63.3 82.5 66.9 154.8 81.0 67.4 29.2 37.8 53.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 56.6 63.2 45.3 150.7 77.9 67.5 27.7 36.3 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 85.3 116.3 67.5 158.6 82.0 67.3 25.9 40.6 57.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 59.2 75.9 59.3 156.6 80.3 67.0 21.9 32.0 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 106.6 120.7 86.3 145.9 79.9 67.4 64.0 79.1 95.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 54.0 62.7 61.8 163.5 80.9 66.4 26.1 40.8 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------