***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.6 13.0 9.6 143.0 76.6 58.7 2.9 4.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.8 21.1 10.9 154.5 77.8 59.0 1.8 5.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 14.1 10.5 140.3 75.2 58.8 3.1 5.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 22.5 9.2 126.0 75.0 57.9 3.4 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.3 14.0 8.5 128.6 75.5 56.7 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.0 13.4 10.6 117.0 73.4 55.6 0.4 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.1 20.8 11.1 152.4 77.2 57.2 1.3 9.4 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.5 33.4 11.7 134.3 74.6 59.8 5.0 13.1 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.7 18.0 9.3 124.4 72.0 57.2 1.1 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 33.8 12.3 133.8 74.1 59.1 4.8 8.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 23.4 7.8 128.9 76.3 57.4 0.7 7.5 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 20.4 8.1 125.9 75.4 59.1 1.1 5.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.8 11.7 8.2 116.6 76.1 56.9 0.1 1.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.3 19.4 14.9 146.0 77.1 56.9 2.1 5.8 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 17.3 6.6 115.1 76.3 58.4 0.6 5.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 19.4 8.2 125.3 76.4 56.1 0.8 5.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.7 30.1 11.2 140.9 76.4 57.3 2.9 6.1 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 17.3 15.1 130.3 71.3 56.2 6.2 12.1 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 28.8 11.3 156.6 79.0 59.1 0.6 4.9 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 18.0 14.6 118.9 67.5 54.6 6.7 10.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.0 14.2 9.0 130.3 73.5 58.2 0.5 6.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 19.2 12.6 146.9 78.3 55.9 2.6 6.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.7 22.9 11.6 149.4 78.3 58.0 1.8 4.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.0 27.5 13.9 141.2 75.0 57.8 6.6 12.9 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.8 22.5 10.4 148.9 77.9 60.5 1.7 6.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.9 23.6 6.1 102.5 74.6 56.0 0.3 1.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 16.6 10.4 150.2 77.8 59.1 3.4 6.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 17.7 8.5 125.5 75.8 58.4 0.1 3.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 28.1 16.2 131.0 71.4 55.7 9.5 16.0 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.7 15.5 10.9 151.8 76.7 59.1 1.5 5.7 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------