***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 26.1 11.5 121.8 74.6 59.9 0.2 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 19.9 10.4 118.2 72.6 58.0 2.8 6.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 16.0 11.7 128.4 74.4 57.8 1.2 5.7 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 26.5 9.0 99.1 70.1 54.5 1.4 5.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.3 15.2 8.4 90.4 69.0 53.2 0.2 4.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.7 13.5 12.7 106.5 68.9 51.9 0.3 5.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 11.3 10.7 121.2 72.5 57.6 0.9 3.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.7 29.1 13.4 120.2 71.7 57.9 2.6 13.3 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.5 22.8 10.9 109.3 70.9 55.6 0.1 2.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.3 17.5 13.9 120.4 71.3 56.3 2.7 7.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.2 16.2 8.0 96.6 69.1 53.1 1.0 4.7 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.3 19.7 9.9 115.4 73.1 56.9 0.2 5.2 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.2 15.7 9.5 105.9 72.3 53.7 1.4 5.6 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 37.7 16.7 136.0 75.8 59.5 1.4 8.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 12.5 7.2 100.1 73.1 55.3 0.4 3.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.0 14.5 8.8 101.6 71.0 53.2 1.0 6.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.7 16.5 10.6 118.3 73.9 58.4 3.5 6.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.7 26.2 17.6 128.6 72.6 55.8 0.2 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 21.5 10.5 120.5 72.7 57.7 1.0 7.8 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 18.0 16.9 118.0 69.6 54.2 2.4 9.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.3 28.2 11.0 116.5 72.3 58.0 0.7 5.6 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 21.2 11.4 116.3 72.4 57.4 2.0 6.7 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.8 26.5 11.2 126.0 74.7 57.3 0.5 8.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.2 28.0 15.3 133.5 74.7 57.6 2.0 9.6 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.7 20.6 11.4 112.5 72.7 57.9 0.3 4.4 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.7 18.3 8.0 113.7 74.2 56.0 1.7 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.4 20.3 12.0 118.9 74.2 59.0 0.6 3.8 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.9 17.4 9.0 102.8 71.6 53.8 0.7 4.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.4 42.7 18.5 126.9 71.8 56.0 7.6 15.1 32.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.7 10.8 120.5 72.9 58.2 1.3 3.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------