***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.0 21.2 19.3 173.2 80.2 63.7 0.9 2.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 11.9 17.2 16.8 158.7 77.6 63.5 0.6 4.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.5 25.4 20.1 169.1 78.9 62.3 1.2 5.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 17.6 25.2 17.9 161.4 75.9 66.0 2.1 5.0 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.8 29.1 18.2 170.9 80.0 64.9 0.4 2.9 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.3 13.1 17.0 140.2 74.5 65.5 0.6 4.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.1 15.9 15.6 143.1 74.7 60.4 1.8 4.7 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.8 25.4 19.9 189.8 80.5 69.9 1.6 10.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.4 21.1 21.0 180.2 79.9 67.6 0.4 2.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 19.4 27.4 21.3 183.6 79.9 68.1 1.2 5.0 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.5 15.8 158.4 75.6 62.2 0.6 3.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.3 18.8 15.7 176.8 79.3 66.4 0.1 4.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.1 10.9 15.6 163.4 77.0 65.6 0.1 2.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.1 34.2 22.8 158.7 78.3 61.8 1.6 13.3 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 8.2 10.6 15.1 166.6 76.7 66.9 0.6 2.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.6 10.3 16.1 165.5 77.6 65.0 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.6 25.4 15.5 137.4 76.3 60.0 2.2 3.4 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.4 23.4 24.0 176.5 79.8 67.2 3.4 8.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 13.7 18.7 18.1 168.2 79.5 63.9 1.2 6.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.9 17.1 22.9 173.1 80.7 67.8 0.5 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 14.5 21.5 20.5 177.5 78.7 65.9 0.2 2.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 17.7 24.1 16.7 149.5 77.8 62.2 4.5 6.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.5 20.2 20.1 174.8 82.5 63.8 1.2 6.3 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 24.4 35.3 23.5 176.5 80.0 64.9 1.6 8.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.4 20.7 19.8 151.8 74.8 61.9 0.4 3.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.3 18.0 14.3 160.0 79.3 64.6 0.0 1.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.8 18.3 19.8 158.7 76.2 62.4 2.2 5.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.2 19.2 17.1 170.7 76.5 67.0 0.2 3.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 20.6 28.0 24.7 167.0 77.2 67.2 4.0 6.9 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 13.9 20.5 17.3 162.2 78.0 62.9 1.0 4.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------