***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 22.1 27.6 22.8 183.0 79.7 64.7 4.0 14.2 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.2 18.3 20.7 194.5 83.7 65.7 3.0 10.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 16.6 23.3 23.6 203.3 83.3 63.9 5.3 9.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 23.9 35.5 24.8 188.6 79.8 66.1 4.4 8.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.8 28.9 23.9 200.0 82.7 64.8 4.6 10.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 18.2 29.5 24.9 185.6 82.7 67.7 2.3 9.7 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.6 20.9 22.0 212.5 85.9 68.4 3.5 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 22.9 42.3 25.3 168.2 78.3 62.4 10.4 18.5 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.8 22.3 22.2 169.7 76.8 61.6 3.9 7.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 28.1 27.2 170.5 77.9 61.7 4.9 11.4 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.9 30.1 22.8 202.9 83.2 64.8 3.1 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 19.7 28.7 19.5 173.0 78.8 63.1 5.9 17.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.3 22.6 21.9 206.0 83.5 65.4 0.9 6.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 24.8 25.5 160.5 78.5 60.4 2.5 14.0 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.7 21.0 23.7 224.9 86.3 67.8 1.2 3.5 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 14.5 21.0 22.2 201.2 83.2 65.9 1.7 4.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 18.6 28.3 19.2 185.9 84.7 64.7 3.7 9.3 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.4 26.0 28.4 158.8 72.9 61.0 7.7 13.4 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 19.9 26.0 20.8 186.9 82.8 63.9 4.4 11.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 28.1 29.0 164.9 77.7 61.2 6.2 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.6 15.8 21.7 172.8 79.1 62.5 6.0 9.3 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 19.7 28.4 17.5 160.7 82.2 60.5 4.5 9.1 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 20.4 20.9 175.3 80.9 61.4 5.1 9.4 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 18.6 25.7 175.1 77.9 61.5 7.7 11.8 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.0 29.9 25.2 194.1 81.5 66.5 5.7 8.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.1 20.5 16.9 209.0 83.9 68.1 1.7 5.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 24.9 35.8 25.2 194.8 81.3 66.3 3.1 9.7 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.9 15.8 24.6 200.4 82.4 66.7 2.3 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.1 25.2 26.9 154.8 73.8 59.9 14.1 16.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.8 25.3 22.8 207.3 84.7 66.3 3.9 7.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------