***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.7 30.6 0.7 63.5 61.7 28.9 29.6 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.3 30.3 0.4 57.6 55.9 28.0 29.2 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 30.5 0.4 57.9 55.7 28.4 29.3 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 23.2 23.3 28.4 1.1 69.1 66.4 21.8 22.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.1 28.6 0.4 56.1 56.2 28.9 29.9 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.6 25.6 0.1 54.1 52.6 27.6 28.3 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.4 30.4 0.7 65.2 61.3 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.4 26.5 0.1 52.6 51.6 16.9 17.4 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.3 28.8 0.2 53.1 54.0 28.5 29.3 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.1 27.1 0.2 53.6 53.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.2 28.4 -0.1 49.2 48.9 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.1 27.9 -0.1 47.6 48.0 27.8 28.2 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.2 27.3 -0.5 39.6 42.4 28.7 29.8 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 28.3 0.4 58.5 55.2 27.8 28.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.6 30.8 30.4 0.7 61.3 61.5 29.5 30.4 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.7 30.3 27.8 -0.2 45.3 47.1 29.4 30.4 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.8 30.2 0.6 61.3 60.5 27.5 28.4 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.1 28.1 26.4 0.4 59.1 56.0 27.5 27.9 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.9 30.3 0.2 54.6 53.3 27.7 28.7 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 23.8 24.1 24.1 0.4 59.3 56.7 23.2 23.6 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.8 30.0 0.6 59.8 59.7 28.4 29.4 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.9 30.1 0.5 58.1 58.5 27.9 28.6 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.9 30.2 0.1 53.3 50.7 28.1 28.8 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.8 28.3 0.3 58.0 55.3 27.9 28.7 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.0 30.2 29.1 0.8 66.5 63.2 28.9 29.8 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.9 27.3 -0.5 41.1 42.4 28.6 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 29.6 29.6 29.8 0.9 67.3 64.1 27.9 29.0 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.5 29.0 0.8 62.2 61.9 29.5 30.3 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.8 25.4 0.4 60.5 56.7 22.3 23.3 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.4 30.4 0.4 58.5 56.0 28.2 29.1 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------