***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.0 31.2 0.7 57.9 56.6 28.5 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.0 30.9 0.4 53.7 53.9 27.8 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.5 31.3 0.5 54.6 54.2 27.4 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.9 24.4 29.7 1.2 66.2 62.7 21.3 22.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.1 30.3 29.4 0.6 56.3 55.9 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.4 29.3 26.5 0.5 58.2 55.7 27.4 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.8 30.9 0.6 57.2 56.2 27.7 29.0 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.8 18.3 27.7 0.5 57.1 54.3 17.4 18.1 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.5 29.3 0.4 54.5 54.0 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.6 29.2 28.1 0.5 56.8 54.6 28.3 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.5 29.4 29.1 0.3 53.5 52.5 28.2 29.0 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 27.0 29.0 29.2 0.3 52.8 52.5 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.1 30.4 28.0 0.1 51.3 51.5 28.5 30.3 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.9 28.8 0.5 55.2 54.3 27.5 29.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.7 31.8 30.8 1.1 64.8 61.6 29.4 30.3 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.7 31.0 28.7 0.3 53.5 53.0 29.4 30.4 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.3 30.7 0.6 59.2 55.9 27.2 29.0 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.8 27.5 0.7 60.5 56.5 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.7 31.0 0.3 51.6 52.5 27.2 28.6 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.3 25.1 0.9 64.3 58.0 23.4 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.8 30.5 0.7 57.3 56.3 27.8 29.4 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.8 30.6 0.5 55.5 54.0 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.6 30.9 0.2 49.8 51.3 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.3 29.0 29.0 0.6 55.6 55.0 27.6 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.5 30.6 29.6 0.9 60.1 59.4 28.0 29.9 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 28.0 29.9 28.7 0.1 50.0 51.1 28.2 29.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.8 30.3 0.8 59.7 58.5 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.8 31.8 29.9 1.1 64.3 61.0 28.9 30.4 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.4 26.4 0.8 61.7 56.7 22.5 23.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.2 31.0 0.4 52.7 53.8 27.7 29.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------