***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.0 30.8 0.5 57.5 55.7 27.9 29.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.7 30.5 0.2 57.0 53.2 28.1 29.0 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.8 30.9 0.3 55.3 53.6 26.8 29.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.6 29.0 0.8 59.9 58.1 20.6 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.0 28.9 0.2 53.7 53.3 27.6 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.4 25.9 -0.1 52.1 50.1 26.2 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.6 30.6 0.5 59.2 55.6 27.5 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.5 27.0 0.0 52.2 50.8 16.2 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.0 28.9 0.2 53.1 52.8 26.8 29.5 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.6 27.6 0.2 53.5 52.6 27.1 28.6 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.0 28.4 -0.2 48.2 49.2 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.1 28.4 -0.3 48.2 48.0 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.9 27.2 -0.5 44.5 45.8 27.4 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.1 28.5 0.3 54.0 53.6 26.4 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.8 31.4 30.1 0.5 55.7 55.5 28.0 30.4 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.7 29.7 27.9 -0.3 46.6 48.1 27.4 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.8 30.5 0.5 58.8 56.0 27.2 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.8 27.0 0.4 56.3 55.0 25.9 28.1 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.2 30.6 0.1 55.0 52.0 26.9 29.0 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.3 24.5 0.3 56.2 54.1 22.4 23.8 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.3 30.1 0.5 57.2 55.8 26.5 29.8 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.6 29.6 30.4 0.4 58.0 54.7 27.8 29.3 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.0 30.5 0.0 51.6 51.1 27.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.1 28.6 0.4 54.9 54.2 25.9 28.9 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.8 29.2 0.7 59.9 58.2 27.1 30.0 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.4 27.8 27.9 -0.6 41.9 44.1 26.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.9 29.9 0.7 59.7 57.6 26.7 29.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.7 31.1 29.2 0.5 56.3 55.3 28.1 30.3 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.2 25.9 0.4 57.0 55.2 21.2 23.7 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.6 30.6 0.2 56.2 53.1 27.0 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------