***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.7 29.6 29.9 0.0 50.5 51.9 27.5 29.6 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.7 29.9 -0.2 48.1 47.8 27.5 29.0 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.5 29.8 -0.4 43.7 46.2 27.8 29.5 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 21.4 22.4 27.4 0.1 52.8 52.2 21.6 22.4 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.5 29.3 27.8 -0.6 41.6 44.3 28.5 29.7 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.7 27.7 24.7 -1.0 35.3 38.8 27.6 28.8 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.2 29.9 0.1 52.0 52.3 27.4 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.9 16.8 25.5 -1.0 36.6 39.2 16.5 18.1 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.8 28.2 -0.6 40.9 44.0 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.4 26.2 -0.8 38.7 41.7 28.0 29.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.2 27.6 -1.1 34.8 38.6 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.3 26.9 -1.2 33.3 37.0 27.3 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.6 28.8 26.6 -1.6 28.3 32.8 28.8 29.6 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.9 27.9 -0.3 45.1 46.7 27.7 29.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.1 29.7 -0.3 45.6 47.9 29.4 30.2 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.3 29.2 27.0 -1.3 31.9 36.1 29.2 30.2 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.9 29.9 0.2 54.0 52.9 26.9 28.5 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 27.1 27.8 25.4 -0.6 40.5 43.7 27.1 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.4 29.8 -0.4 45.2 45.8 27.5 28.4 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.0 23.1 -0.8 38.7 41.8 22.8 24.2 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.1 29.5 29.4 -0.2 46.3 48.8 27.9 29.5 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.2 29.8 0.2 55.3 52.7 27.4 28.5 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.0 29.6 -0.6 40.5 43.9 27.4 28.8 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 27.2 28.5 27.7 -0.5 41.9 45.0 27.3 28.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.1 29.9 28.4 0.0 49.7 51.1 27.9 29.9 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.4 28.6 26.2 -1.6 29.6 31.8 28.8 29.5 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.4 29.0 29.2 0.1 52.1 53.0 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.0 28.2 -0.3 46.5 47.9 29.3 30.3 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 22.3 23.0 24.5 -0.6 40.3 43.6 22.5 23.4 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.7 29.8 -0.3 45.8 47.5 27.3 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------