***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 30.2 31.0 30.3 1.8 75.9 71.6 26.9 27.7 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 29.5 29.4 30.1 1.0 66.9 63.3 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 29.7 29.2 30.1 1.2 67.6 65.0 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 23.5 24.4 27.7 2.1 79.0 75.5 20.4 21.3 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 30.1 29.9 28.3 1.3 70.5 66.6 27.6 28.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 27.5 28.2 25.3 1.0 63.6 62.4 26.6 27.1 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.1 30.2 1.5 71.4 68.6 27.1 28.2 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 16.4 17.5 25.7 0.9 62.5 61.2 15.0 16.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.6 28.8 1.0 65.9 62.8 27.3 27.9 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 28.1 28.8 26.5 0.9 64.9 62.2 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 28.5 28.5 28.4 0.8 61.0 59.8 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 28.0 28.0 27.1 0.8 59.0 58.9 26.2 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.5 27.5 0.1 50.6 51.8 27.3 28.5 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.1 28.7 28.1 0.8 63.3 60.6 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 30.6 30.8 30.7 1.6 71.8 69.0 28.8 29.2 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 29.7 29.4 27.7 0.5 57.5 57.1 28.3 29.3 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.8 29.7 1.1 66.7 63.9 26.7 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 27.2 27.8 25.5 1.0 64.5 62.6 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.1 28.6 29.9 0.9 64.8 62.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 23.0 23.5 23.7 1.1 63.8 63.1 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.3 30.0 1.5 72.9 68.5 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.5 29.4 29.6 1.1 67.4 63.7 27.1 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.0 28.5 29.7 0.6 60.2 59.1 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 28.0 28.3 28.1 0.9 63.8 62.4 26.6 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.7 29.2 1.7 75.8 70.9 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 28.4 28.3 26.3 0.2 52.2 52.7 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.7 29.8 1.8 77.3 72.6 26.6 28.0 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.6 28.9 1.8 74.2 71.2 28.5 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 22.4 23.4 24.8 1.0 63.9 62.9 21.0 22.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 29.6 29.7 30.2 1.2 69.3 65.6 26.6 28.1 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------