***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.0 20.2 1.2 87.6 80.7 15.5 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.4 19.8 1.0 84.7 77.0 14.9 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.7 19.1 20.3 1.0 83.6 76.6 17.2 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 14.4 14.8 17.8 1.3 88.7 83.9 12.8 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.3 17.8 1.0 83.5 78.2 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 13.8 14.1 15.3 0.8 82.7 76.6 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 16.9 17.4 20.0 1.2 86.9 79.1 15.5 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.3 9.6 15.3 0.8 80.1 75.0 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 16.2 16.5 17.9 1.0 82.6 79.5 15.2 15.5 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 16.1 16.4 16.2 1.0 83.3 78.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.7 16.0 17.4 0.8 77.5 72.6 14.7 15.1 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.0 16.3 0.7 76.2 71.7 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.1 15.7 0.7 75.1 70.4 14.0 14.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 16.9 17.3 17.8 1.1 87.2 82.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 17.5 17.8 19.6 1.2 86.7 82.4 16.4 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.4 16.6 0.7 77.6 71.8 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 17.4 17.8 19.6 1.1 85.9 78.8 16.0 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 14.6 15.5 15.4 1.0 87.5 82.8 13.0 13.9 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.0 19.9 0.9 82.0 75.1 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.3 13.2 1.0 88.6 82.3 9.3 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.7 19.3 1.2 86.8 81.1 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.7 19.7 1.0 84.8 77.9 14.9 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.3 19.8 0.9 77.5 72.8 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 16.6 17.0 17.6 1.0 86.1 81.2 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 16.2 16.9 18.9 1.3 88.7 83.2 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.8 15.1 0.6 73.6 69.8 14.1 14.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.5 19.5 1.3 88.7 82.8 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.0 15.5 18.2 1.2 86.6 81.4 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 13.7 14.2 14.7 1.0 88.2 82.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.8 17.5 20.1 1.0 84.4 76.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------