***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.9 20.1 0.9 63.6 61.9 15.8 16.2 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.0 19.9 0.8 64.1 62.0 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.5 20.4 0.8 64.9 61.9 17.4 18.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.8 17.9 1.1 71.5 66.5 12.7 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 16.1 15.5 17.6 0.8 64.0 62.7 13.9 15.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.1 15.6 0.7 64.9 63.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.1 20.1 0.9 66.3 63.9 15.8 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.3 15.5 0.7 62.1 61.7 8.5 9.4 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.7 17.6 0.8 62.7 62.6 15.8 16.3 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.7 16.8 16.2 0.8 63.1 62.9 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.2 17.2 0.6 59.0 60.0 14.7 15.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.5 16.3 0.6 59.9 59.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.2 15.3 0.5 60.8 59.8 14.1 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.7 17.7 1.0 68.8 66.4 16.1 16.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.8 18.2 19.3 0.9 69.1 64.8 15.9 16.8 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.9 16.4 0.6 61.1 60.6 15.5 16.5 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.4 19.7 1.0 65.7 64.1 16.0 16.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.4 15.3 1.0 69.0 66.7 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.0 20.0 0.8 63.5 61.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.6 13.0 1.0 70.5 67.0 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.8 19.2 0.9 64.8 63.1 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.3 19.6 0.9 64.6 63.4 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.6 19.9 0.8 63.5 61.4 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.4 17.5 0.9 68.9 65.9 15.9 16.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.9 16.9 18.7 1.0 65.7 64.0 15.4 16.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.2 15.1 0.4 59.3 57.6 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.5 19.3 1.0 65.4 63.3 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.6 18.2 0.9 69.3 65.2 14.3 14.7 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.6 14.8 1.0 70.0 67.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 17.6 17.3 20.2 0.8 63.8 61.5 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------