***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.3 20.1 0.8 66.9 63.1 15.3 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.4 19.9 0.8 67.1 62.7 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 18.3 18.5 20.3 0.7 66.2 62.2 16.9 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.7 17.7 0.8 65.8 63.4 12.7 13.4 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.1 17.4 0.5 59.8 58.5 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.1 15.3 0.3 56.5 56.7 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.5 16.6 20.1 0.8 67.1 63.5 15.2 16.4 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.0 15.1 0.2 58.8 56.6 8.1 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 17.5 0.5 62.0 60.0 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.1 15.9 0.4 62.5 59.6 15.2 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 16.8 0.2 56.0 54.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.7 15.9 0.1 55.0 53.9 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 15.0 0.2 55.8 53.3 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.7 16.9 17.6 0.8 66.6 63.7 15.6 16.1 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 17.3 17.8 19.2 0.7 64.5 62.0 16.3 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 16.1 0.2 56.5 54.6 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 0.9 67.3 64.0 15.9 16.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.0 15.2 0.7 68.0 63.8 13.3 14.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.3 19.9 0.7 65.5 61.6 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.0 11.2 12.7 0.6 66.9 61.8 9.7 10.2 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.0 19.1 0.7 67.0 62.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.8 19.7 0.8 65.9 63.6 14.9 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.1 19.8 0.5 63.5 60.1 14.7 15.2 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.6 17.4 0.7 66.9 63.6 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.0 16.1 18.6 0.9 67.4 64.6 14.7 15.5 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.2 14.9 0.1 53.6 52.2 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.2 19.3 0.9 68.2 64.9 14.5 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.4 18.0 0.7 64.5 61.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 0.6 66.8 63.7 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 16.8 16.6 20.1 0.7 66.5 62.2 14.9 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------