***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 17.0 16.5 19.8 0.7 65.7 64.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.7 19.6 0.7 64.4 62.4 14.7 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 17.7 18.8 19.9 0.6 64.0 62.7 16.5 17.4 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.4 15.0 17.5 0.9 74.5 68.6 12.0 13.0 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.8 17.7 0.7 65.5 63.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.4 13.6 15.0 0.6 68.6 64.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 16.2 17.0 19.8 0.8 67.4 64.9 15.4 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 9.5 9.3 15.1 0.6 66.5 63.8 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.0 17.8 0.7 69.1 65.4 14.9 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.3 16.1 0.8 70.5 66.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.7 17.4 0.6 65.9 63.0 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.4 16.1 0.5 64.1 61.1 12.2 12.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 14.7 14.3 15.9 0.6 64.0 62.4 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.6 17.2 17.7 0.9 73.1 68.6 15.1 15.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.2 19.5 0.9 72.8 68.0 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.0 16.6 0.5 64.8 62.1 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 16.7 17.8 19.5 0.8 68.0 64.8 15.8 16.4 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.9 15.3 0.8 71.3 67.8 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.1 19.7 0.6 62.8 61.6 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.5 10.3 13.2 0.8 69.7 66.1 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.0 15.9 19.1 0.8 69.1 66.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 15.3 16.3 19.6 0.8 67.4 65.1 14.9 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 15.0 15.5 19.6 0.6 61.2 60.8 14.3 14.7 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.9 17.6 0.8 71.1 68.1 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.0 18.6 0.8 65.8 64.4 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 15.1 0.4 64.2 60.1 13.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.4 19.1 0.8 67.3 65.0 14.7 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 14.8 15.2 18.0 0.8 72.4 67.6 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.5 14.7 0.9 71.5 68.5 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.7 19.8 0.7 63.2 62.0 14.9 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------