***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 24.9 33.2 27.7 75.8 50.6 40.6 23.7 32.9 55.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 29.4 46.5 29.1 85.5 48.1 43.5 27.6 47.8 56.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 29.3 40.1 26.5 76.1 46.8 40.4 32.4 41.8 53.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 28.5 37.3 21.1 58.9 33.7 31.1 37.2 54.7 71.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 24.6 31.6 19.2 56.8 35.9 29.5 29.3 45.0 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 27.4 34.9 19.4 49.4 30.2 25.4 39.9 60.5 74.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.3 40.4 31.7 92.2 54.0 44.9 22.8 35.7 54.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 43.3 43.1 21.0 51.6 29.4 27.2 45.2 67.4 98.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 26.7 31.1 20.2 55.8 38.1 30.0 30.0 43.6 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 33.2 41.1 22.9 54.1 32.5 28.6 41.7 58.0 86.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 23.1 25.8 17.2 51.7 28.2 27.2 27.9 41.5 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 25.7 29.2 15.8 48.2 29.9 26.5 38.0 51.9 73.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 19.9 28.3 15.2 46.6 34.2 25.6 27.0 42.9 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 33.5 47.8 29.0 64.8 37.6 34.7 42.5 59.1 79.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 13.8 18.5 18.4 59.0 44.8 32.9 16.3 26.2 60.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 18.5 24.5 16.6 51.7 30.8 27.0 24.6 39.0 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 29.7 44.7 31.5 92.6 54.7 46.9 35.0 42.8 58.4 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 34.7 44.1 27.7 59.6 36.0 30.7 41.2 61.8 74.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 28.9 39.6 27.8 79.3 45.9 41.1 33.0 50.7 65.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 34.1 38.4 28.7 61.9 34.9 31.2 37.9 51.5 59.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.6 34.2 22.2 64.6 45.1 34.8 33.2 38.0 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 32.1 49.5 31.1 85.4 46.8 42.7 39.7 52.6 64.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 32.8 37.4 26.2 70.0 41.6 38.1 31.6 48.3 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 36.9 45.3 25.9 63.4 38.0 33.4 41.2 53.0 67.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 28.3 35.4 27.2 69.4 45.7 36.8 27.2 36.7 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 18.9 28.1 12.6 48.8 33.8 26.3 27.7 37.5 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.8 34.9 29.2 72.3 46.6 38.7 24.5 39.7 58.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 23.9 25.1 19.0 57.7 38.9 31.0 23.3 41.8 55.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 56.2 61.2 30.3 62.1 34.9 31.6 58.1 79.5 89.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 27.5 37.8 28.9 82.5 47.8 42.4 25.1 40.3 53.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------