***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.0 22.9 4.9 127.7 80.9 52.5 1.4 4.3 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 22.9 4.3 111.0 77.6 51.4 0.6 8.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 21.6 5.3 145.2 80.4 50.3 3.0 6.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.5 20.0 4.3 104.4 74.7 49.5 0.9 8.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.6 12.2 4.1 113.3 73.3 47.7 0.6 6.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.3 14.4 5.5 92.5 75.2 47.4 1.4 4.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.4 20.4 3.7 93.8 74.7 50.0 0.7 9.0 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 29.2 5.6 118.5 73.8 46.2 7.6 13.1 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.2 18.8 4.3 108.3 71.9 48.5 0.6 6.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.2 33.6 5.8 112.7 72.6 47.8 2.9 7.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.4 20.3 4.4 128.8 74.7 46.7 0.3 3.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.9 23.9 4.5 124.1 77.2 46.3 2.4 6.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.7 17.8 5.1 118.5 74.4 44.3 0.5 3.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.1 35.4 7.1 133.4 78.1 52.6 1.4 4.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.1 16.7 3.0 71.2 75.9 49.3 0.1 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 11.7 4.7 125.6 75.7 47.0 2.4 5.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.2 27.2 4.3 106.8 76.6 51.7 3.2 8.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 23.4 6.9 121.0 76.4 47.7 5.0 10.6 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.2 27.1 4.9 122.4 77.4 52.2 0.9 10.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 18.5 7.4 118.5 71.7 47.4 4.4 9.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.5 17.5 4.4 123.0 75.8 48.7 0.3 3.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.6 12.9 4.7 115.6 75.8 53.1 2.2 5.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.6 24.3 5.6 134.0 77.6 51.9 2.3 5.4 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.3 31.7 6.0 125.8 78.9 48.8 1.9 12.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.5 18.6 4.3 102.9 75.6 49.5 0.1 3.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.6 24.2 3.8 117.2 75.9 46.6 1.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 19.8 4.8 114.5 78.9 50.9 1.6 5.4 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 10.7 4.1 94.8 75.4 49.0 0.1 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 27.4 7.5 121.6 74.9 48.5 3.8 15.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.0 16.0 4.7 117.1 76.0 51.3 1.5 4.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------