***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.1 2.9 4.8 51.1 50.6 37.3 1.1 2.7 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.1 3.5 5.3 58.1 53.5 38.8 0.7 2.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.6 4.2 4.2 45.3 43.3 32.9 1.4 4.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.0 4.3 43.9 43.6 31.6 0.7 6.7 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 0.9 1.5 3.9 43.0 42.9 31.2 0.3 2.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 1.3 2.6 5.0 44.8 44.1 30.4 0.7 3.9 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.4 4.5 5.5 63.6 55.6 38.1 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.4 9.3 5.3 52.0 44.4 34.8 3.3 10.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 0.3 0.4 3.9 42.0 43.2 30.8 0.0 1.1 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 1.7 4.1 5.1 49.0 42.8 33.8 2.6 5.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 1.2 1.0 4.4 45.7 38.5 29.6 0.3 4.1 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.5 1.9 4.3 48.9 46.0 33.3 0.2 4.6 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 0.6 0.4 3.4 37.7 40.0 31.4 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.2 5.1 44.1 44.2 34.4 1.4 7.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 4.3 5.2 62.8 56.8 35.2 0.1 1.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.9 3.9 45.1 44.5 32.0 1.7 3.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.2 3.8 5.6 59.4 56.4 41.2 2.0 2.9 7.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.2 5.6 50.6 47.6 34.3 1.4 5.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.3 4.8 50.3 49.4 36.2 1.3 4.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 1.8 4.5 6.4 51.7 44.4 33.2 0.9 5.9 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.1 3.9 43.8 44.0 34.2 0.1 4.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.1 5.0 46.5 54.5 36.5 1.9 4.6 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 1.8 4.5 44.0 41.5 33.3 0.7 5.9 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.7 5.3 52.4 46.1 36.5 1.3 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.9 5.6 55.1 48.6 36.2 0.6 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 0.1 0.1 3.3 40.8 43.9 35.7 0.0 0.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.7 5.7 55.7 51.9 37.6 1.3 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.4 3.3 4.2 51.6 48.4 33.9 0.1 3.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.2 6.5 50.7 44.0 34.2 3.0 8.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.7 4.9 55.7 50.4 37.8 2.0 5.6 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------