***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.0 15.6 12.8 94.3 63.9 44.9 4.0 8.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 11.9 13.3 108.3 63.0 49.3 4.0 10.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 14.7 11.9 100.5 64.3 43.9 2.7 8.6 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 3.1 7.3 8.1 63.4 47.4 33.2 4.0 8.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.6 10.1 7.8 63.4 50.7 35.1 7.7 10.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 1.6 5.9 5.6 42.7 41.7 26.2 3.6 7.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.8 16.1 131.8 72.6 51.5 2.5 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 9.3 12.4 6.1 36.9 35.5 29.1 10.7 19.8 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.5 6.5 8.0 60.0 46.3 35.9 3.3 7.2 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 7.3 7.6 48.1 40.5 32.0 6.0 14.9 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.0 5.6 5.3 45.5 41.9 30.8 3.1 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 4.2 6.7 4.1 32.2 33.5 26.1 6.6 16.4 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.4 6.5 4.4 41.0 44.2 26.4 3.7 6.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.7 13.3 10.2 66.5 51.6 39.9 5.4 12.9 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.2 4.9 6.7 55.6 55.0 32.7 1.0 3.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.5 3.9 5.0 43.9 38.8 28.5 3.1 8.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.7 16.6 14.8 118.5 66.6 51.3 3.7 9.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 11.2 9.6 57.8 44.6 35.1 6.7 12.9 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.3 12.4 99.1 60.0 47.3 6.8 10.6 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.9 9.4 61.5 45.3 37.0 7.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.3 9.4 9.2 70.6 53.7 38.3 4.9 9.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.3 14.2 107.0 60.2 49.7 3.9 9.3 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.6 11.2 85.6 55.2 44.8 5.1 8.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.5 12.2 9.2 63.7 51.5 36.3 6.7 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.8 16.0 11.6 80.3 60.8 40.5 5.3 8.4 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 1.9 4.7 3.7 45.2 44.8 30.0 2.6 6.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.4 13.0 86.8 61.8 43.7 3.5 7.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.8 6.4 6.9 55.9 46.2 30.8 2.3 6.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 13.8 18.4 10.1 62.4 46.9 37.5 14.9 18.9 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.7 15.0 13.5 106.7 65.4 48.6 3.3 6.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------