***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 29.6 29.7 30.4 0.4 56.7 58.0 28.8 29.6 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 29.9 29.7 31.1 1.0 71.9 67.7 28.1 29.2 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.5 29.8 31.0 0.8 65.2 64.2 28.5 29.3 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 23.3 23.7 29.5 1.6 78.7 75.5 21.9 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 30.5 30.6 29.8 1.3 73.4 72.7 28.7 29.8 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 29.2 29.4 27.5 1.6 79.5 76.6 27.7 28.2 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 29.6 29.3 30.5 0.5 60.9 59.5 28.2 28.8 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.3 18.6 28.0 1.7 78.1 77.0 17.0 17.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 30.1 30.2 30.1 1.3 74.0 72.5 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 29.7 29.9 28.6 1.5 77.3 75.1 28.1 28.9 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 30.2 30.6 30.1 1.7 80.9 77.3 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 29.2 29.4 29.5 1.9 82.0 79.2 27.7 28.0 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 30.4 30.7 29.2 1.8 81.1 77.9 28.8 29.7 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 29.7 29.9 29.7 1.6 79.5 75.6 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.2 31.4 1.7 77.8 77.8 29.7 30.4 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 31.3 31.7 29.8 1.8 81.9 78.6 29.6 30.5 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 29.2 29.4 31.0 1.3 75.0 71.3 27.7 28.3 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 28.6 28.7 27.8 1.6 78.3 75.5 27.4 28.0 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 29.4 29.6 31.4 1.4 76.6 71.7 27.8 28.8 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 24.8 25.0 25.6 1.5 76.2 75.7 23.0 23.5 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.0 30.6 0.8 64.6 64.8 28.5 29.5 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 30.0 30.3 31.1 1.6 77.9 75.1 27.9 28.8 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 29.6 29.9 31.7 1.9 81.8 78.2 28.2 28.9 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 29.4 29.5 29.7 1.5 77.5 74.5 27.8 28.7 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 30.2 30.2 29.3 0.6 65.8 62.8 28.9 29.8 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 30.1 30.4 29.2 1.9 79.1 78.6 28.6 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.4 29.6 0.4 60.7 59.4 28.2 29.1 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 30.9 31.2 30.4 1.8 80.2 78.1 29.7 30.3 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 24.1 24.1 26.7 1.3 75.6 72.8 22.4 23.4 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 29.7 29.4 30.8 0.7 62.0 62.1 28.2 29.2 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------