***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 28.0 30.6 31.7 0.4 57.3 53.2 28.8 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.0 31.0 32.2 0.8 59.4 57.2 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.0 30.2 32.4 0.8 62.3 57.8 28.3 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.3 30.9 1.4 64.8 63.5 21.7 23.3 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.8 30.9 30.9 1.3 62.5 62.4 29.1 30.1 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.2 28.4 1.7 69.7 66.7 27.7 29.3 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.2 31.7 0.4 55.1 52.9 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.5 19.0 29.4 1.7 71.0 65.9 17.5 18.5 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 31.2 30.2 31.0 1.3 63.9 62.6 28.8 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.9 30.5 29.9 1.6 68.2 65.0 28.1 29.5 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 31.3 31.6 30.9 1.7 70.5 66.1 28.1 29.6 31.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.4 30.8 1.8 72.5 66.5 27.8 29.1 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 31.3 31.3 29.8 1.7 71.0 66.0 29.2 30.4 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.8 30.6 1.4 69.1 63.4 27.7 29.4 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.8 32.2 31.9 1.6 68.6 65.0 29.4 30.7 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 32.2 32.3 30.6 1.8 70.9 66.6 29.2 30.9 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.4 30.4 32.0 0.9 61.9 58.2 27.7 28.9 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.4 29.2 1.5 66.5 64.3 27.4 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.5 30.5 32.5 1.1 62.5 59.7 27.4 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 25.8 25.3 26.8 1.5 68.3 64.3 23.8 24.6 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.1 31.6 0.8 60.3 57.7 28.8 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.5 32.0 1.1 64.3 59.9 27.6 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.3 32.6 1.5 69.1 63.1 27.8 29.0 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 30.4 30.0 30.6 1.4 66.2 63.5 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.7 30.4 30.3 0.6 57.8 56.3 28.8 30.2 31.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 30.8 31.0 30.5 1.9 71.0 68.3 28.8 29.7 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.8 30.0 30.8 0.4 57.4 54.2 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.7 31.9 31.4 1.6 67.6 65.5 29.5 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.1 24.5 28.1 1.4 65.6 62.8 22.8 23.9 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.7 30.3 32.0 0.6 58.1 55.1 28.0 28.9 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------