***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.9 31.0 0.7 61.7 57.9 27.4 29.0 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.4 29.8 31.6 1.4 67.2 64.9 27.5 29.1 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.9 31.7 1.2 65.8 62.9 26.9 29.3 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 24.5 24.7 30.4 1.7 71.8 67.9 20.3 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.1 30.3 1.6 69.4 66.1 27.3 29.8 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.5 28.0 1.7 73.7 68.8 26.3 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 29.9 29.6 31.1 0.9 62.3 60.6 27.4 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 19.2 19.6 28.8 2.0 74.7 70.4 15.6 17.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.1 30.4 1.6 69.9 66.6 26.9 29.4 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.2 29.3 2.0 72.9 69.4 26.7 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.0 31.5 30.3 2.0 74.3 69.8 26.8 29.5 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 30.5 31.2 30.2 2.1 75.7 70.8 26.1 28.4 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 31.3 31.5 29.2 1.8 73.0 68.4 27.1 29.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.7 29.9 2.1 73.4 69.8 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 32.0 32.1 31.5 1.9 75.7 70.3 27.8 31.0 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 32.2 32.3 30.1 2.0 74.7 70.0 27.9 31.0 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.6 29.8 31.6 1.7 70.4 67.1 27.3 28.7 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.6 28.6 2.0 72.3 69.1 25.9 28.4 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.8 31.9 1.7 68.9 67.0 27.1 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.7 26.2 1.9 73.2 68.9 22.0 24.0 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.8 30.4 30.9 1.1 64.5 61.3 26.8 29.3 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.0 31.5 1.9 71.9 68.8 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.8 30.0 32.0 2.1 72.0 69.9 27.0 28.5 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 29.5 29.8 30.0 1.9 70.6 68.5 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.6 29.6 0.9 61.7 60.5 26.9 29.4 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 31.0 31.4 30.0 2.0 76.4 71.3 26.4 29.2 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.4 30.1 0.7 61.0 58.8 26.9 29.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.9 31.9 31.0 2.0 73.7 70.0 27.8 30.9 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.1 24.7 27.4 1.8 70.0 67.3 21.4 24.0 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.9 31.3 1.1 63.6 61.7 26.8 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------