***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.1 28.8 29.7 -0.1 47.5 50.3 27.6 29.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.6 30.5 0.6 63.1 58.3 27.1 29.1 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.9 30.3 0.3 55.9 54.3 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.6 23.8 28.7 1.1 69.7 64.5 21.0 22.7 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 31.3 30.6 29.1 0.8 63.3 60.2 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.5 26.7 1.0 69.5 62.2 27.1 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.0 29.9 0.0 51.4 51.7 27.1 28.8 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 18.7 19.0 27.2 1.1 69.6 64.8 16.0 17.6 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.2 29.5 0.8 64.4 60.5 28.0 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.3 30.5 27.8 1.0 67.3 62.7 27.2 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 30.8 31.0 29.4 1.1 68.4 64.0 28.0 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.3 28.7 1.3 73.1 66.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.8 31.3 28.6 1.2 69.9 64.7 28.3 29.5 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 30.4 30.3 29.2 1.2 68.6 64.4 27.2 28.8 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.5 31.8 30.8 1.3 71.9 67.0 29.1 30.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 31.8 31.8 29.0 1.2 69.0 65.2 29.1 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.8 30.4 30.5 0.9 66.4 61.1 26.7 28.0 30.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.6 27.1 1.1 71.1 63.2 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.0 30.8 1.0 66.5 61.7 27.1 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.2 25.0 1.1 69.5 64.3 22.7 23.8 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.5 30.0 0.2 52.6 54.0 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.5 30.6 1.3 69.3 64.9 27.2 28.7 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.3 30.3 31.2 1.5 70.2 67.8 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.6 29.1 1.0 67.0 62.6 26.8 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.9 28.6 0.1 54.0 52.8 28.0 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 30.7 30.8 28.2 1.2 70.2 64.9 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.7 29.0 -0.1 49.3 50.5 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.3 31.3 29.7 1.3 72.5 67.0 29.5 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 24.6 24.3 26.0 0.8 67.2 60.8 22.2 23.5 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.4 30.0 30.1 0.2 54.7 53.7 27.1 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------