***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 27.8 28.3 29.2 0.6 60.3 59.3 26.4 27.3 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 28.3 29.3 30.0 1.3 66.4 64.9 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 28.2 28.5 29.7 0.9 63.8 61.8 27.2 27.8 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 22.7 23.2 28.1 2.0 75.4 72.0 19.9 20.7 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 30.2 29.9 28.9 1.7 71.7 69.8 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 29.2 29.7 26.9 2.3 80.4 76.1 26.0 26.9 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 28.4 28.8 29.3 0.6 57.3 58.5 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.6 18.1 26.7 1.8 72.8 70.9 14.8 15.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 29.5 28.6 29.5 1.5 69.3 69.0 26.5 27.7 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.0 27.4 1.6 70.4 68.9 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 29.9 30.1 29.6 2.1 74.1 72.9 26.7 27.6 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 29.0 29.4 28.4 2.3 77.1 74.9 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 30.3 31.0 29.3 2.5 79.7 76.8 27.2 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 29.3 29.2 29.0 1.7 70.9 69.7 27.0 27.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 30.9 31.3 31.1 2.2 76.3 74.0 28.5 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 31.4 32.0 29.3 2.3 78.0 75.3 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.0 29.1 30.1 1.8 71.3 69.4 26.5 27.8 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.4 27.8 26.5 1.7 70.3 69.1 25.3 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 28.8 28.9 30.3 1.7 70.6 68.6 26.4 27.8 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 24.0 24.4 1.7 71.4 69.2 20.7 22.1 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 29.6 28.7 29.9 1.0 66.1 63.9 26.9 27.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 29.5 29.7 30.2 2.0 74.3 73.1 26.8 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 29.7 30.3 30.9 2.5 80.2 76.5 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 29.0 29.0 28.9 1.7 71.1 69.6 26.1 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 28.5 28.9 28.6 0.9 65.2 63.0 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 29.9 30.3 28.1 2.4 77.9 75.8 26.7 27.8 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 28.0 28.5 28.7 0.7 62.0 59.8 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 30.9 31.3 29.6 2.3 77.4 74.3 28.2 28.9 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.5 25.4 1.4 68.1 66.4 20.5 21.4 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 28.4 28.7 29.6 0.8 62.0 60.6 26.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------