***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.0 19.3 0.1 52.2 53.8 15.5 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.2 19.2 0.4 61.9 62.3 14.8 15.9 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.1 19.6 0.2 56.9 57.1 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.1 17.3 0.4 68.3 62.7 12.8 13.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.7 17.6 0.4 67.2 64.1 14.0 14.4 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.6 15.4 0.5 71.6 66.1 12.8 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.2 19.2 0.1 55.9 54.2 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.4 15.4 0.7 75.6 69.7 8.5 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.9 17.6 0.4 65.4 63.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 15.9 15.8 16.1 0.5 69.5 66.3 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.8 17.4 0.6 73.4 68.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.0 16.4 0.7 78.1 71.2 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 14.8 14.8 15.6 0.4 67.9 62.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.9 17.6 0.6 72.3 66.3 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.0 19.0 0.5 65.3 63.5 16.3 16.9 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.3 16.7 0.6 72.2 66.6 15.2 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.1 19.2 0.6 67.2 66.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.5 15.4 0.5 68.9 64.8 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.4 19.4 0.6 69.1 66.3 15.3 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 13.2 0.6 73.0 68.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.5 18.8 0.1 55.8 55.2 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.3 19.4 0.8 75.0 69.5 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.3 19.7 0.9 79.6 73.0 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.6 17.5 0.5 69.8 64.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.7 18.2 0.2 58.7 58.0 14.9 15.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.6 15.2 0.5 70.3 63.4 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.1 54.6 55.1 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.0 17.9 0.5 70.5 65.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.4 13.6 14.7 0.5 68.6 64.8 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.4 19.3 0.2 57.1 57.1 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------