***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.8 20.0 0.2 51.3 53.3 15.5 16.8 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.5 19.9 0.4 56.8 56.4 15.2 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 17.0 18.2 20.4 0.3 54.0 55.2 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.8 18.1 0.7 64.5 59.9 12.8 14.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.7 18.0 0.6 61.3 59.0 13.8 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.3 16.1 0.7 66.8 62.2 12.9 13.5 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.6 20.0 0.2 53.7 53.0 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.5 16.2 0.9 68.2 64.0 8.7 9.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.9 17.9 0.5 61.6 58.5 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.1 16.7 0.7 65.0 61.8 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.8 17.8 0.8 68.8 63.4 15.0 15.4 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.6 17.0 0.9 68.9 64.0 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.3 15.6 0.5 62.6 59.9 14.6 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.8 18.1 0.7 64.6 60.1 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.5 19.4 0.7 64.1 60.6 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 17.2 17.0 0.7 66.2 62.5 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.1 19.9 0.5 60.6 57.7 16.4 16.7 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.9 15.9 0.6 62.7 60.1 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.0 17.0 20.1 0.6 61.1 58.6 15.7 16.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.5 13.5 0.7 65.8 61.9 9.6 10.5 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.6 16.1 19.3 0.3 55.2 54.7 15.1 15.8 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.7 19.9 0.7 63.4 59.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.8 20.3 0.8 66.6 61.7 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.3 17.8 0.6 63.8 59.0 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.4 18.6 0.3 54.9 55.8 14.9 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.7 15.5 15.6 0.7 69.2 63.2 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.5 19.2 0.3 53.4 54.5 15.1 16.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.7 18.6 0.8 66.9 61.3 14.3 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.1 15.2 0.5 61.5 59.0 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.1 16.7 20.1 0.3 54.4 54.6 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------