***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.0 19.7 0.2 54.3 53.9 15.4 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.3 19.7 0.6 64.8 60.3 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.2 20.2 0.4 59.0 57.9 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 14.2 13.9 18.1 0.7 66.2 61.8 12.8 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.2 17.9 0.6 67.5 61.0 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.5 16.2 0.8 69.1 64.5 13.0 13.6 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.5 19.7 0.3 59.1 55.9 15.6 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.0 15.8 0.8 70.5 64.7 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.5 17.8 0.5 66.5 60.3 15.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.5 16.5 0.6 69.2 62.6 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.5 17.6 0.8 71.8 64.7 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 14.4 14.7 16.8 0.8 71.9 65.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.7 15.8 0.6 64.7 60.8 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.0 17.9 0.7 68.7 62.1 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.4 19.5 0.7 69.3 62.7 15.9 16.8 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.0 17.0 0.8 71.6 63.6 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.9 19.7 0.8 64.7 62.7 15.9 16.6 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.0 15.7 0.5 67.4 61.4 12.7 14.5 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.8 19.9 0.8 68.9 62.5 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 11.2 10.9 13.3 0.5 64.9 61.6 9.2 10.5 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.7 16.1 19.2 0.4 60.0 57.1 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.3 19.7 0.9 70.0 64.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.2 20.0 1.0 72.4 65.5 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.8 16.8 17.7 0.6 67.9 60.8 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.0 18.4 0.3 59.7 56.2 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.8 15.6 0.7 68.9 62.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.9 15.7 18.9 0.2 56.7 54.4 14.1 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.5 18.6 0.8 69.9 63.7 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.7 15.0 0.5 64.6 61.1 12.4 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.5 19.8 0.4 60.5 57.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------