***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 14.8 14.7 18.0 -1.0 25.1 33.0 14.8 15.8 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.2 18.1 -0.5 39.9 42.5 14.9 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 16.6 16.3 18.5 -0.7 31.4 37.2 16.4 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.6 16.4 -0.2 44.9 45.5 12.2 13.0 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 12.5 13.4 16.7 -0.4 39.5 42.4 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.6 14.5 -0.1 43.5 44.8 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.1 18.1 -0.8 29.0 36.6 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.3 14.4 -0.2 46.3 44.8 8.0 8.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.5 16.7 -0.5 32.9 39.7 14.5 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.7 15.2 -0.3 42.0 42.9 14.2 15.0 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.4 16.6 -0.2 47.1 46.2 14.2 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.6 15.5 -0.1 48.0 46.3 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.1 -0.3 37.2 41.7 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 14.6 15.7 16.7 -0.1 46.5 45.7 15.0 15.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 16.1 18.3 -0.2 45.9 44.8 15.9 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.1 16.1 -0.1 45.9 46.7 14.5 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.7 16.3 18.3 -0.2 50.3 48.8 16.1 16.3 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.1 14.6 -0.2 43.1 44.0 12.6 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.5 18.4 -0.3 45.9 46.1 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.0 9.0 12.6 0.0 47.2 47.7 8.3 9.1 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.8 -0.8 25.8 35.1 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.5 18.5 0.1 58.2 52.7 14.7 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.1 18.7 0.1 57.1 52.7 14.4 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 14.5 15.2 16.7 -0.2 45.3 44.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 13.7 14.4 17.1 -0.8 30.2 36.0 14.5 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.4 -0.3 37.8 41.5 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 13.6 14.2 17.4 -1.0 27.8 33.5 14.5 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.9 17.1 0.0 50.1 48.0 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.9 -0.2 42.4 43.8 12.0 12.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.1 18.2 -0.8 32.2 37.8 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------