***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 15.3 15.7 19.3 1.0 67.6 66.9 14.3 15.1 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 15.1 16.2 19.2 1.1 66.0 66.1 13.7 14.8 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 17.4 17.8 19.4 0.8 66.5 64.6 16.1 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 12.7 12.7 16.5 0.5 61.5 60.8 11.6 12.4 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.9 14.8 17.7 1.0 68.5 66.3 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 13.5 13.5 14.7 0.8 66.8 65.8 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 15.5 15.9 19.0 0.7 59.9 60.5 14.8 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.1 8.9 15.1 1.2 70.8 69.7 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.8 18.0 1.1 70.0 68.6 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.6 15.5 16.0 1.0 69.1 67.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 15.5 15.8 17.5 1.0 69.6 68.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.9 14.1 16.4 1.4 72.4 72.1 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 14.4 14.7 16.1 0.9 65.2 66.1 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 17.6 1.2 69.4 69.5 14.7 16.2 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 16.6 17.0 18.8 0.6 63.6 63.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.9 16.7 0.9 66.3 66.0 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 16.4 17.0 19.1 1.4 67.6 68.5 15.2 16.3 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.7 14.5 15.3 1.0 67.0 66.4 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 15.9 16.2 19.4 1.3 71.1 69.5 14.1 15.4 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.2 13.5 1.2 72.9 70.8 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.5 18.9 0.7 64.2 63.1 14.0 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.8 16.0 19.3 1.5 71.1 70.7 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.2 19.7 1.8 78.8 76.8 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.0 17.7 1.1 68.2 67.8 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 15.7 15.9 18.7 1.1 68.4 67.3 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 14.1 14.6 15.1 0.9 66.2 66.0 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 15.1 15.3 18.9 1.0 67.2 66.3 14.0 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.9 17.3 0.6 63.7 63.3 13.5 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.8 14.5 1.1 68.5 68.4 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 15.7 16.2 19.3 0.9 65.7 64.1 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------