***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 45.6 32.9 38.2 81.7 50.3 45.8 22.9 32.9 53.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 50.8 53.2 40.3 90.6 56.5 48.2 29.3 46.5 57.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 45.9 42.5 39.4 85.1 55.7 47.7 32.4 40.7 51.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 64.5 55.0 38.2 87.6 54.2 48.4 36.2 53.1 75.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 47.2 43.2 34.3 82.1 53.0 46.2 29.8 38.5 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 66.8 68.8 43.3 93.6 55.8 48.6 39.9 60.4 74.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 24.7 40.0 39.0 87.2 53.8 46.7 23.2 35.6 55.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 82.5 73.3 41.5 86.1 51.5 46.0 53.7 72.4 91.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.0 35.6 34.2 74.6 47.4 42.0 27.6 39.4 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 67.0 57.7 41.8 79.8 49.3 43.7 41.9 57.9 84.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 50.2 44.8 34.7 87.5 54.7 47.8 29.0 41.9 55.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 63.0 68.8 35.5 92.5 57.4 49.0 38.1 56.9 73.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.1 50.3 41.2 105.4 62.4 53.1 30.8 42.0 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 69.9 63.0 52.8 90.5 55.1 48.0 43.8 59.0 82.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 36.7 35.2 35.7 97.4 61.9 53.1 16.3 23.9 46.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 43.9 46.2 38.4 101.7 62.7 53.1 24.6 41.8 46.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 28.8 43.5 39.3 86.9 55.4 45.6 34.8 39.4 58.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 63.4 53.1 49.3 83.0 49.2 44.6 49.0 53.9 67.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 58.2 62.2 41.2 91.7 56.8 49.2 33.0 51.6 66.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 52.9 49.4 53.6 93.8 53.2 47.6 39.9 48.5 56.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 47.0 35.4 35.8 77.3 49.5 44.3 31.7 35.5 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 37.5 61.1 41.7 90.4 55.2 47.3 37.7 56.1 67.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 52.0 49.0 42.9 93.5 57.8 50.7 31.1 47.2 53.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 59.2 56.0 45.7 85.1 53.1 46.6 39.8 55.1 63.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 43.9 36.8 40.6 82.7 50.2 45.3 26.1 36.7 54.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 25.2 48.8 36.0 113.1 67.3 55.6 25.2 37.8 47.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 50.4 34.3 40.3 81.0 48.7 44.5 24.5 37.3 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.8 50.5 38.0 96.1 60.6 52.1 22.7 41.8 61.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 78.3 71.3 53.1 87.9 50.2 45.7 60.8 71.2 91.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 44.0 42.2 40.3 90.2 56.5 48.7 25.1 36.9 53.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------