***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 12.6 7.4 80.0 64.6 43.4 1.5 4.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.2 6.9 73.2 59.2 41.7 0.8 11.1 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.6 11.2 6.8 71.8 62.4 39.9 1.1 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 12.7 7.3 87.5 67.6 45.5 0.7 5.6 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.6 10.4 6.2 73.9 63.2 43.6 0.1 4.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.7 9.0 104.3 69.6 46.4 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.6 13.6 6.4 70.7 59.6 41.2 0.4 10.2 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.1 8.0 87.3 61.8 47.7 2.6 7.3 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 8.6 6.0 61.3 58.2 39.5 0.3 5.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.2 7.4 68.9 57.8 42.3 1.5 7.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.8 6.3 87.3 66.2 45.0 0.2 2.0 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.8 15.8 7.6 113.9 71.9 50.2 1.1 4.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.9 15.5 9.7 137.7 75.3 49.8 0.3 4.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 1.9 7.6 9.4 74.1 61.2 42.6 1.2 4.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.5 10.2 5.9 87.6 71.0 45.7 0.0 1.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.4 17.3 8.2 122.1 74.9 48.9 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.8 17.6 8.1 84.6 63.0 42.7 2.9 8.3 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.8 9.2 71.0 55.7 42.9 4.1 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 15.1 6.8 72.1 60.6 41.5 1.2 6.1 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.5 11.3 91.7 60.7 49.2 4.5 9.4 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.5 12.3 6.6 68.3 63.5 40.7 0.3 3.2 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.3 10.9 8.5 86.4 63.5 43.7 1.5 5.1 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.6 10.7 6.7 71.7 62.5 41.5 0.4 4.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 13.9 7.9 68.2 57.4 40.7 1.9 11.4 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.1 14.7 7.9 82.9 66.9 44.8 0.1 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 24.5 8.7 161.0 80.1 56.8 1.3 7.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.9 10.4 7.7 78.1 63.9 42.6 0.7 4.1 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 13.7 7.1 94.0 70.0 46.9 0.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 14.9 10.3 77.6 57.5 44.6 2.9 9.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.7 7.0 6.7 72.6 61.1 42.0 1.5 4.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------