***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.0 4.6 5.2 57.1 54.7 43.9 0.2 2.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 9.3 6.8 79.2 63.4 45.7 1.4 5.6 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.2 10.4 6.5 68.8 59.3 45.6 0.3 4.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.5 25.4 8.3 90.3 69.0 51.8 0.8 5.0 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.4 11.4 7.0 83.9 65.5 51.3 0.1 4.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.9 9.5 94.0 64.9 50.5 0.9 5.4 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.0 6.7 74.4 63.0 44.0 2.1 8.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.4 37.4 10.9 115.3 72.2 55.8 3.7 13.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.2 7.2 76.4 60.7 48.3 0.0 1.6 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 10.5 100.8 67.2 52.4 0.7 7.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.2 24.6 7.3 100.7 71.7 54.5 0.6 3.6 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 25.7 8.0 109.0 74.4 55.8 0.1 4.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 16.6 8.7 108.2 72.4 53.8 0.8 5.6 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.3 15.7 10.3 88.5 63.5 48.6 1.7 9.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 12.3 7.9 96.3 74.0 52.1 0.8 4.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 11.5 8.2 109.0 73.0 54.0 0.7 3.5 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.5 19.3 7.5 81.7 65.3 46.3 4.1 8.3 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 26.3 12.5 103.1 67.8 50.6 1.7 7.4 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.2 7.1 79.6 63.0 47.1 1.7 6.7 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 20.9 15.0 119.8 70.7 55.4 4.0 10.4 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.8 6.5 71.7 60.8 47.7 0.6 6.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.2 24.8 8.6 86.3 65.4 47.3 4.4 10.2 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.0 13.0 7.2 76.8 60.8 46.6 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 17.4 10.2 92.7 65.9 47.9 0.7 8.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.0 14.0 6.7 70.2 58.5 47.9 0.1 10.1 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 25.2 8.3 128.9 76.0 57.9 1.5 7.9 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.9 5.8 60.8 54.6 43.9 1.7 3.6 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.3 23.2 9.1 108.5 74.6 53.7 2.7 5.6 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 31.2 13.8 110.6 68.4 52.0 10.0 14.6 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.9 6.1 69.1 59.8 43.8 4.3 5.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------