***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.1 3.6 8.8 69.1 53.1 40.0 1.0 2.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.7 8.2 8.7 75.9 57.7 40.5 0.7 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.1 8.6 68.4 55.1 39.9 1.1 5.6 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.9 7.2 70.6 56.9 42.5 1.7 6.7 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.6 7.1 71.9 59.1 44.7 0.4 2.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.4 9.4 81.7 58.7 41.5 0.5 3.3 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.4 5.0 8.6 76.8 58.7 39.8 1.1 3.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.8 7.0 62.9 53.2 40.5 3.4 8.7 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.0 6.9 62.5 55.8 39.9 0.1 1.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 5.1 7.7 65.7 53.8 41.2 1.3 4.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.0 3.1 6.9 65.7 53.9 40.8 0.0 2.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.2 6.3 6.4 66.2 54.2 40.4 0.0 2.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.4 2.7 8.3 87.6 63.0 43.5 0.0 0.8 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.6 10.6 11.4 80.2 57.4 39.3 1.1 6.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.7 7.9 6.8 75.8 63.9 43.9 0.5 1.7 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.2 4.1 7.9 82.0 61.0 44.5 0.5 2.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.5 7.0 8.1 75.5 58.6 41.0 2.0 4.0 10.1 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.1 9.8 74.5 55.3 42.4 1.0 5.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 8.8 8.8 74.6 56.0 40.9 1.1 5.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.7 8.5 67.2 50.9 40.5 1.0 4.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.9 7.1 59.2 53.5 39.6 0.0 2.3 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.4 8.0 9.5 83.7 61.3 42.0 1.2 4.1 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.4 8.5 70.5 55.7 38.7 0.7 6.1 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.6 10.4 78.9 56.8 41.5 0.9 5.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.5 9.2 72.5 55.3 44.9 0.7 5.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 0.0 3.3 8.4 88.9 63.4 40.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.9 9.7 71.7 53.9 42.2 2.7 6.6 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.2 8.5 6.6 72.0 61.0 43.1 0.1 2.8 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.2 10.5 75.7 53.1 41.5 3.3 7.6 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.0 9.4 78.8 59.4 40.8 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------