***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 16.5 16.8 107.5 69.0 51.1 3.9 5.0 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 12.6 17.9 119.2 71.0 55.4 3.0 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.7 15.1 17.5 119.0 70.4 53.6 3.1 7.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 16.6 15.4 97.3 65.4 48.4 2.1 6.8 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.8 14.0 93.2 63.7 47.4 4.4 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 17.4 15.4 96.8 63.2 49.1 3.0 8.2 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 8.1 17.4 111.3 69.7 54.8 1.9 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 28.1 15.7 85.1 55.2 46.5 19.9 27.0 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.5 14.0 90.7 61.4 47.6 3.8 7.5 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 19.2 16.1 84.1 56.8 46.1 7.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.1 16.7 14.2 98.5 63.4 49.2 2.4 10.8 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.5 19.8 13.5 92.7 59.1 48.7 9.4 17.0 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.6 15.9 14.5 99.8 65.4 50.2 5.4 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 23.2 21.6 110.0 68.8 55.2 4.4 7.8 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.9 15.1 117.8 69.8 53.0 1.0 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.0 17.1 14.2 102.1 65.8 49.9 5.1 12.8 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.6 14.6 15.5 99.2 66.3 51.9 3.0 6.2 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.8 22.4 17.8 84.2 55.3 46.7 12.9 18.9 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 18.8 18.6 125.2 71.8 56.8 5.1 8.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 16.4 18.9 97.9 60.1 50.7 9.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.6 15.6 100.5 63.8 48.8 5.4 9.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.9 15.0 100.6 67.5 54.0 2.8 9.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.5 18.2 20.4 136.6 74.6 59.3 4.7 8.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.4 14.4 17.2 96.0 62.5 50.4 6.8 12.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.5 13.9 16.8 97.1 64.2 47.8 4.0 8.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.1 10.6 101.0 63.4 51.7 3.4 5.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 14.9 17.1 101.9 67.2 48.6 2.8 5.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 9.5 15.2 106.5 67.4 50.8 0.6 5.3 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.6 21.8 18.6 89.2 56.3 48.0 16.3 19.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 15.0 18.2 123.2 71.9 55.5 3.3 6.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------