***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 30.0 30.4 31.5 2.5 93.6 86.4 28.8 29.5 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 30.0 30.9 31.3 2.3 91.2 83.8 28.1 29.1 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 30.1 30.8 31.6 2.5 92.5 85.4 28.4 29.2 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 23.5 24.1 29.8 2.9 92.8 89.0 22.0 22.3 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 30.6 31.8 30.0 2.6 92.4 86.6 28.7 29.8 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 29.1 29.6 26.6 1.5 84.0 76.8 27.6 28.2 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.7 31.3 2.3 91.8 84.5 28.2 28.9 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 18.3 18.8 27.5 1.9 86.7 80.6 16.9 17.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 30.2 31.1 30.5 2.6 93.2 87.6 28.4 29.3 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 29.8 30.7 28.5 2.2 88.2 82.1 28.0 29.0 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 30.3 31.2 29.9 2.5 91.5 85.9 28.4 29.2 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 29.3 31.0 29.1 2.3 89.7 84.4 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 30.4 30.8 28.4 1.8 83.7 78.6 28.6 29.7 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.0 29.0 1.7 84.9 77.5 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 31.1 31.8 31.0 2.6 91.0 87.4 29.6 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 31.2 32.1 29.3 2.3 89.1 84.1 29.4 30.5 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 29.5 30.0 30.9 2.3 89.3 82.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 28.6 28.9 27.2 1.7 83.1 76.7 27.4 28.0 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 29.6 30.2 31.4 2.4 92.1 84.4 27.7 28.8 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.9 24.5 1.1 74.5 69.4 23.2 23.5 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 30.2 30.9 31.1 2.4 91.4 85.1 28.4 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 29.9 30.4 30.4 1.9 87.1 78.7 27.9 28.8 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 29.6 30.6 31.5 2.7 94.2 86.5 28.2 28.9 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 29.3 29.9 29.3 2.0 88.0 80.8 27.7 28.7 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 30.3 31.1 30.0 2.4 92.7 85.4 28.8 29.7 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 30.1 30.6 28.4 2.0 87.2 81.1 28.5 29.0 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 29.7 30.4 30.6 2.5 93.9 86.3 28.3 29.0 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 31.0 32.1 30.0 2.5 90.1 85.9 29.7 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 24.0 24.2 26.0 1.3 77.6 71.9 22.6 23.4 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.3 31.4 2.4 92.1 84.3 28.1 29.1 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------