***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 31.8 32.8 32.1 2.5 80.6 72.6 28.4 30.0 31.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.6 31.9 2.4 80.0 70.8 28.5 29.2 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 31.3 32.3 32.3 2.5 79.0 71.1 28.2 29.3 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.7 25.2 30.6 2.7 80.1 74.6 21.9 23.6 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.4 30.6 2.4 76.8 71.8 28.4 30.6 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.1 27.3 1.5 68.2 64.3 28.2 29.5 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.9 32.0 2.4 80.0 71.6 27.8 29.5 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.4 19.4 28.3 1.8 71.4 66.6 17.8 18.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 31.7 32.3 30.7 2.5 77.7 71.4 28.8 30.2 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.2 29.1 2.1 73.5 68.0 28.2 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 31.6 32.1 30.2 2.3 75.6 70.6 28.2 30.0 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.5 30.5 29.7 2.0 72.8 68.0 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 31.4 31.4 28.5 1.4 66.5 63.2 29.1 30.5 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 30.7 31.1 29.4 1.8 72.6 64.6 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 32.0 32.4 31.4 2.6 82.0 75.0 29.7 31.0 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 32.4 32.7 29.7 2.0 72.7 68.4 28.9 31.2 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 30.4 31.0 31.6 2.3 80.3 70.6 27.7 29.0 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 29.8 29.9 28.1 1.7 70.4 64.3 27.0 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 30.7 31.7 32.0 2.4 79.6 70.6 27.5 28.8 31.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.4 25.2 1.0 65.1 59.7 24.1 25.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 31.4 32.2 31.5 2.3 77.4 70.3 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.9 31.7 31.2 2.1 76.3 68.0 27.7 29.4 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 30.9 32.0 31.9 2.5 79.0 70.4 28.0 29.0 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 30.5 31.4 29.8 2.0 73.9 66.9 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 31.9 32.7 30.5 2.4 79.8 72.3 29.2 30.3 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 30.8 31.2 29.1 1.7 69.0 65.8 28.7 30.1 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 31.2 32.4 31.3 2.5 81.0 73.0 28.3 29.6 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.1 30.7 2.4 78.3 72.6 29.4 31.2 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.4 26.7 1.3 67.2 61.0 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 31.1 32.2 32.1 2.4 80.0 71.2 27.7 29.2 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------