***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 30.5 31.7 31.6 2.2 81.8 71.9 27.6 28.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 30.5 31.4 31.4 2.1 79.7 71.3 27.7 28.6 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 31.0 32.1 31.8 2.1 79.6 71.3 27.0 28.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 24.9 26.2 30.3 2.7 86.9 76.7 20.0 23.3 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.8 32.6 30.1 2.2 80.7 73.2 27.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 26.8 1.3 69.7 66.0 26.2 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 29.9 31.1 31.5 2.1 81.5 72.3 27.5 27.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.5 19.9 27.8 1.6 71.8 67.9 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.8 30.2 2.2 77.1 72.5 27.2 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.7 30.6 28.6 1.8 73.2 69.1 26.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 31.4 32.1 29.7 2.1 79.3 72.5 26.7 29.4 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.5 31.3 29.3 1.9 74.8 70.0 26.3 28.6 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 31.3 30.8 28.1 1.3 65.2 65.1 27.3 29.8 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.4 28.9 1.5 70.0 65.5 26.6 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 32.0 33.0 31.0 2.5 87.7 77.0 27.7 31.0 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 32.5 33.1 29.3 1.9 76.2 70.5 27.6 31.1 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.3 31.2 2.1 78.6 70.6 27.4 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.2 27.5 1.4 68.8 64.6 26.0 28.2 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.6 31.5 2.1 79.4 71.1 27.4 28.2 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.9 24.6 0.7 58.6 59.1 22.0 23.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.6 30.9 2.0 75.4 70.8 27.0 29.0 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.5 30.7 1.8 74.3 67.6 27.5 28.6 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 30.4 31.6 31.4 2.2 79.8 71.5 27.1 28.1 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.4 29.3 1.7 73.6 67.5 26.4 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.8 32.0 30.1 2.2 81.2 72.0 27.1 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 31.1 31.3 28.9 1.7 72.5 68.6 26.6 29.4 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.8 30.8 2.2 82.8 72.5 26.9 28.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.9 32.9 30.3 2.4 85.2 74.8 27.8 31.0 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.2 24.4 26.2 1.0 62.8 60.9 21.1 23.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.2 31.3 31.5 2.1 79.8 71.4 27.4 28.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------