***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 30.2 30.8 30.5 1.6 77.0 69.5 28.0 28.6 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.7 31.3 30.4 1.5 74.1 67.9 27.1 28.9 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 30.4 31.2 30.6 1.5 76.1 68.2 28.1 28.8 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 23.4 23.6 28.5 1.9 76.1 71.1 21.5 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.1 31.5 29.0 1.5 74.5 68.3 28.6 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 25.3 0.2 54.3 54.3 27.5 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.3 31.1 30.3 1.5 74.4 68.2 27.3 28.6 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.2 26.3 0.9 63.9 60.6 16.3 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.0 29.7 1.7 75.8 70.4 28.0 28.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.3 27.5 1.2 68.1 64.1 27.7 28.5 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.9 28.9 1.4 71.3 66.3 28.1 28.7 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.4 27.9 1.2 69.6 63.8 27.2 27.9 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.1 27.5 0.7 62.3 59.0 28.4 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.1 28.3 1.0 67.6 62.7 27.6 28.7 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 31.1 31.1 30.1 1.5 74.8 68.9 29.8 30.4 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 31.4 31.3 28.2 1.1 69.0 63.8 29.0 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.8 30.1 1.6 75.1 68.1 26.6 28.3 30.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.9 26.3 0.8 64.5 60.2 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 30.3 31.1 30.5 1.6 75.6 68.6 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.6 23.5 0.1 53.2 52.8 22.8 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.3 30.8 30.2 1.5 74.1 67.8 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.0 29.6 1.2 73.4 64.9 27.3 28.8 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.2 30.6 1.8 78.4 70.7 28.0 28.4 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 29.7 30.0 28.6 1.2 71.3 64.6 27.5 27.9 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 30.7 31.2 29.1 1.5 73.6 68.2 28.2 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 30.3 29.8 27.1 0.8 61.7 59.5 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.6 29.7 1.6 75.7 69.1 27.7 28.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.1 28.9 1.4 72.1 67.0 29.8 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.5 25.0 0.4 58.5 55.8 22.4 23.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.9 30.4 1.5 74.8 67.9 27.4 28.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------