***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 16.6 17.3 19.9 1.7 91.7 87.1 15.4 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 16.9 17.5 19.4 1.4 88.0 82.8 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 18.8 19.3 19.9 1.6 91.1 85.5 17.2 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.3 14.8 17.6 1.7 92.7 88.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 14.9 16.2 17.5 1.5 91.9 86.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 13.8 14.4 14.9 1.1 86.0 81.2 12.8 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 17.1 17.4 19.8 1.6 88.9 85.4 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.4 9.9 14.7 1.0 85.8 79.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 16.2 17.3 17.6 1.5 92.0 86.6 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 16.0 16.4 15.6 1.1 86.4 80.3 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 15.7 16.6 16.9 1.4 90.7 85.9 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.8 14.6 15.8 1.3 88.9 85.0 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.3 15.1 0.9 82.9 77.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.2 16.9 0.9 82.6 76.0 15.4 16.0 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 17.5 18.6 19.0 1.7 92.7 89.4 16.3 17.0 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.3 17.0 16.2 1.2 88.6 83.2 15.2 15.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 17.5 17.9 19.2 1.4 87.3 81.4 15.9 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.4 15.1 14.6 0.8 82.4 75.9 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.2 19.5 1.5 89.3 83.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.4 12.3 0.6 77.0 72.1 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 16.1 17.2 18.9 1.4 91.5 85.0 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 16.3 16.7 19.0 1.2 86.2 79.1 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 16.2 16.6 19.5 1.6 91.5 86.0 14.7 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.6 17.1 17.0 1.1 85.8 79.5 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.3 17.5 18.6 1.6 92.5 86.1 15.0 15.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 14.8 15.2 14.9 1.2 86.2 82.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 16.4 17.6 19.3 1.7 92.7 87.3 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 15.1 16.0 17.8 1.5 91.5 87.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.7 13.8 0.6 77.2 71.2 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 17.0 17.5 19.8 1.6 89.4 84.7 15.6 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------