***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.3 19.9 1.6 81.5 71.6 15.1 16.1 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.2 19.7 1.4 80.4 70.0 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.4 20.1 1.5 82.8 72.4 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.9 17.9 1.8 83.6 75.9 12.3 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.6 17.5 1.6 80.7 74.0 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.8 15.2 1.0 75.3 69.4 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.1 17.5 19.9 1.5 82.4 71.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 10.2 10.4 15.1 1.2 75.7 69.9 8.4 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 16.5 16.8 17.6 1.5 81.5 73.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.6 16.8 15.9 1.2 77.5 70.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 16.2 16.5 17.0 1.5 80.1 73.7 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 14.4 14.6 15.9 1.3 78.1 72.0 12.6 13.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.6 14.9 0.8 71.4 65.9 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 17.3 16.9 17.1 1.0 72.5 67.4 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.1 19.1 1.8 85.5 76.0 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.7 16.2 1.3 76.6 71.2 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.7 18.0 19.4 1.3 80.7 69.0 16.1 16.9 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 15.0 15.1 14.8 1.0 72.8 67.2 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.1 19.7 1.4 80.2 70.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.0 12.3 0.6 67.2 62.9 9.4 10.3 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 16.4 16.7 18.9 1.4 80.0 72.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.7 19.2 1.3 78.6 68.6 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.6 19.5 1.5 80.6 72.8 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.0 17.1 1.2 76.3 69.9 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.9 18.5 1.5 80.7 71.4 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 15.5 15.6 15.0 1.2 74.6 70.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.2 19.2 1.6 81.9 71.9 14.5 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.1 18.0 1.6 82.6 74.9 13.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.5 14.1 0.8 70.4 64.7 12.1 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.5 20.0 1.5 81.1 71.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------