***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.9 18.7 0.7 67.1 60.5 14.9 15.6 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.2 18.3 0.3 58.3 56.4 14.5 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.7 18.8 0.5 62.3 58.7 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 16.4 0.6 63.7 60.7 12.1 12.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.7 16.5 0.4 60.6 58.5 12.7 13.9 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.7 13.7 -0.1 47.5 49.8 11.5 12.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.9 18.6 0.6 63.3 60.2 15.0 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.2 13.7 0.0 49.9 51.2 7.8 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.7 16.6 0.4 59.7 58.5 14.3 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.0 14.6 0.0 50.9 51.9 14.1 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.3 15.9 0.3 58.8 57.2 13.7 14.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.0 14.8 0.2 54.6 54.5 11.5 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.3 14.1 -0.3 43.3 45.0 12.4 13.9 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.6 15.9 -0.2 47.8 47.9 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.1 17.9 0.6 63.5 61.3 15.5 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.5 15.2 0.1 52.9 52.9 13.9 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.1 18.0 0.3 58.5 56.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.2 13.6 -0.2 46.1 46.9 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.9 18.3 0.4 58.7 56.7 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.4 11.5 -0.4 40.8 44.5 8.1 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.7 17.8 0.4 60.6 57.8 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 17.9 0.1 54.0 53.2 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.5 18.3 0.5 61.1 58.7 14.4 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.5 16.0 0.0 52.5 51.5 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.3 17.6 0.6 63.4 58.2 14.0 15.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.5 13.6 -0.2 43.1 46.7 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.6 18.1 0.7 65.6 59.7 14.3 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.4 16.6 0.4 59.8 58.2 12.6 14.1 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.1 12.8 -0.4 41.4 43.8 11.6 12.9 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.8 18.6 0.5 60.8 58.3 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------