***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.0 18.3 20.8 3.1 90.9 90.1 14.4 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.5 18.1 20.0 2.5 87.0 85.7 13.6 14.6 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 18.7 19.6 20.6 2.7 89.5 87.9 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 14.3 15.5 18.0 2.6 89.7 88.6 11.3 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.3 18.4 2.5 90.7 88.7 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.9 15.4 2.2 88.4 87.1 12.2 12.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.5 20.4 2.8 88.3 88.0 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 9.0 9.5 14.9 1.8 81.6 80.7 7.3 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 16.4 17.7 18.5 2.5 90.6 88.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 16.0 16.3 16.0 1.8 81.7 81.2 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.0 17.8 2.3 90.1 88.1 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 14.1 15.1 16.7 2.5 90.8 88.3 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.3 16.4 2.0 88.8 86.4 13.5 13.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 17.0 17.4 17.6 1.8 81.3 80.3 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.6 18.5 19.8 2.6 92.1 91.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 16.6 17.6 17.3 2.3 90.4 88.3 14.5 15.1 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 17.7 18.2 19.7 2.4 85.5 84.7 14.9 15.9 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.8 15.1 15.2 1.7 79.1 79.8 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.4 18.2 20.1 2.6 88.2 86.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.3 10.4 13.3 1.7 80.7 80.7 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 16.4 17.6 19.6 2.4 90.1 87.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 16.8 17.2 19.6 2.2 84.7 83.2 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 16.5 17.6 20.4 2.9 90.2 89.6 13.6 14.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 16.7 16.8 17.7 1.9 82.4 82.0 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 16.4 17.5 19.7 2.9 90.1 89.2 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.1 16.3 16.1 2.7 95.4 91.1 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 16.7 18.1 20.3 3.1 92.1 90.8 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.5 16.6 18.4 2.5 90.8 89.4 13.9 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 12.8 12.9 14.1 1.3 74.7 75.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.5 18.3 20.4 2.7 88.0 87.3 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------