***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 19.3 17.9 41.2 20.5 10.0 11.4 24.7 32.9 54.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 18.2 15.4 37.4 19.3 10.3 10.4 29.4 47.3 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 17.4 15.3 42.8 21.8 10.8 11.8 28.9 41.2 53.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 20.8 14.9 45.1 23.0 12.9 13.5 36.3 51.7 69.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 18.6 14.9 46.9 24.3 12.7 13.7 29.1 37.0 71.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 18.6 11.5 55.1 25.6 11.6 11.8 37.2 52.3 74.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 15.5 12.1 36.7 18.7 10.3 9.9 22.5 35.6 52.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 35.7 25.3 60.7 26.0 7.7 9.2 54.5 71.0 92.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 16.3 13.9 49.3 24.0 12.0 12.9 28.4 39.7 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 26.5 20.6 61.2 24.7 9.3 10.5 42.8 57.6 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 18.5 14.8 47.4 25.0 11.6 12.4 26.8 41.7 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 15.9 10.0 49.0 26.8 9.1 10.6 36.9 58.8 72.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 15.3 9.5 47.7 25.7 10.8 12.6 25.6 42.0 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 25.1 13.3 59.0 22.3 8.3 9.4 44.3 62.0 89.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 11.4 12.0 35.9 22.2 17.7 17.0 16.3 18.5 45.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 13.1 10.2 44.5 24.6 10.9 12.1 27.8 40.1 46.2 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 20.5 11.9 37.4 19.1 10.4 10.1 33.7 36.7 58.9 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 30.3 16.6 71.4 25.8 9.5 10.1 49.4 53.8 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 16.2 11.7 39.2 19.9 9.8 10.6 33.0 51.6 68.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 29.8 19.7 73.9 27.0 6.3 7.0 45.4 48.5 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 11.4 7.8 44.9 22.9 11.7 13.0 31.8 35.2 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 21.1 13.7 41.8 21.0 9.7 10.3 34.9 50.3 69.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 23.4 18.6 42.5 20.6 9.7 10.9 34.5 45.9 53.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 24.4 14.1 58.3 24.1 10.2 11.0 40.0 50.7 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 20.9 18.1 46.8 21.5 11.2 11.9 26.8 38.4 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 14.6 12.4 41.4 26.6 14.2 14.7 21.6 38.0 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 17.8 12.7 45.1 20.5 10.1 10.9 24.5 38.4 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 18.9 15.9 43.0 23.9 15.2 15.4 23.6 37.8 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 46.2 34.2 75.0 26.5 7.8 8.5 61.4 70.7 89.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 19.2 13.8 38.8 19.9 10.2 10.6 25.1 36.8 50.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------