***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 8.0 9.3 9.3 8.9 1.6 8.0 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 0.1 0.0 7.5 8.8 9.1 9.0 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 8.9 10.1 9.2 9.7 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.0 8.8 10.9 12.8 11.5 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 8.7 10.8 13.2 11.5 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 10.8 12.8 9.7 11.0 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 6.8 8.0 8.6 7.9 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 0.3 0.0 12.1 12.6 8.1 9.7 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 8.8 10.1 13.5 10.9 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.0 11.6 11.2 10.0 10.0 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 0.1 0.0 8.8 11.3 11.0 10.7 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 9.4 12.2 9.2 10.3 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 9.5 12.4 13.5 12.3 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 0.1 0.0 12.3 10.8 10.3 9.4 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 0.2 0.0 6.9 10.1 14.5 12.3 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 8.5 11.6 12.3 11.5 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 6.5 7.8 7.1 7.2 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 14.3 12.2 9.0 10.2 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 8.2 9.4 9.5 9.4 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.0 15.3 13.3 6.9 8.7 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 7.8 9.2 11.2 10.1 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 8.5 10.0 7.9 8.7 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 0.1 0.0 8.9 9.9 9.4 9.5 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 11.9 11.4 10.3 10.4 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.6 9.6 9.1 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.0 8.4 13.4 9.0 11.9 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.6 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 0.3 0.0 8.5 11.5 14.5 12.7 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 1.9 0.3 14.9 12.5 8.1 9.5 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 0.0 0.0 8.1 9.4 9.5 9.4 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------