***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 0.4 0.0 10.3 18.9 17.3 15.8 0.4 2.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 0.8 0.0 10.4 20.0 17.9 16.2 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 0.7 0.1 10.4 19.7 16.4 15.9 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 0.6 0.0 11.1 20.5 17.6 16.6 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 0.5 0.0 11.6 22.5 20.5 17.1 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 0.7 0.0 11.9 19.9 15.3 14.3 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 1.3 0.0 9.6 18.6 15.1 15.3 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.0 0.3 14.2 21.8 13.6 14.2 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 0.2 0.0 12.3 22.8 17.9 16.6 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.0 14.5 21.9 14.6 14.7 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 0.3 0.0 10.5 19.8 15.1 14.6 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 0.3 0.0 11.4 22.1 15.8 15.2 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 0.4 0.0 11.7 22.1 16.9 16.2 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.1 15.1 21.2 16.4 15.1 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.1 8.2 18.0 19.7 17.1 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 0.3 0.0 10.1 19.6 15.8 14.7 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 2.5 1.3 11.6 21.7 20.1 17.4 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 0.8 0.0 17.5 23.8 17.0 16.0 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.0 10.7 20.3 18.4 16.3 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.1 18.0 23.6 11.9 13.7 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 1.0 0.0 10.7 20.5 19.0 16.0 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 1.8 1.6 13.0 23.4 21.2 18.2 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 0.7 0.4 11.4 21.1 19.9 16.3 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 1.5 0.2 14.7 23.0 18.7 16.8 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.0 12.4 20.5 18.6 16.8 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 0.9 0.3 9.0 21.0 19.3 16.2 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 0.7 0.0 11.9 19.8 17.6 16.1 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 0.7 0.0 9.9 19.7 17.5 16.6 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 1.9 0.0 18.5 24.0 14.0 14.9 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 0.9 0.0 10.0 19.0 16.9 15.7 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------