***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.3 11.8 37.5 37.5 29.9 0.9 2.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.6 10.3 34.7 35.0 29.8 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.8 14.0 46.7 41.0 35.5 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 2.1 14.7 48.3 45.0 37.9 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 1.7 14.8 50.1 44.5 39.3 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.2 3.2 19.0 56.7 45.5 41.1 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.2 1.0 10.0 33.5 34.8 29.4 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.5 17.3 47.2 39.6 35.2 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 0.4 0.2 13.7 43.4 40.6 34.3 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.8 1.1 17.6 45.8 39.8 35.3 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.9 1.1 16.9 56.3 46.9 41.8 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.6 0.5 15.8 54.6 44.3 39.5 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 1.7 0.2 14.4 50.9 44.7 39.4 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 1.2 1.1 16.9 41.9 36.0 31.5 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.3 13.7 55.2 54.1 42.2 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.5 2.0 14.6 50.7 44.5 39.6 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.3 2.0 9.3 31.6 32.9 28.2 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.0 1.5 19.8 47.3 37.0 34.3 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.4 11.1 37.1 36.3 30.9 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.3 19.8 48.3 36.2 33.9 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.0 0.3 13.8 45.7 40.1 35.5 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.6 10.9 36.9 33.6 30.0 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.7 13.1 42.3 39.2 32.9 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.9 1.2 17.2 46.4 37.2 34.3 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.2 14.6 42.1 39.6 34.2 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 0.9 1.6 17.8 71.7 56.1 52.3 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.0 13.7 39.0 36.7 31.4 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.3 2.8 14.2 51.0 49.5 39.8 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 5.6 22.2 51.1 38.4 35.3 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.2 11.8 39.2 36.9 31.6 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------