***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.5 11.0 45.9 47.5 39.5 3.2 5.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 5.0 9.3 39.6 41.4 34.8 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.8 9.6 42.6 43.8 37.4 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 7.5 10.4 44.4 42.8 37.2 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.5 11.7 50.4 44.0 39.5 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 6.6 13.4 55.7 43.0 39.8 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.5 10.2 42.0 42.9 34.6 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 30.4 21.9 17.1 57.5 44.0 40.4 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.3 7.7 14.5 61.7 52.5 44.3 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 14.2 17.4 57.4 47.4 42.0 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.9 7.9 11.2 46.4 43.2 38.2 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 19.8 13.4 12.3 55.1 44.5 39.3 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.2 8.9 12.1 55.1 47.0 41.2 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.3 7.3 14.8 47.9 40.3 36.2 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.5 7.1 36.3 49.2 40.0 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.8 11.3 52.4 45.2 39.7 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.5 9.9 40.4 40.8 34.0 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.8 17.9 19.9 59.5 46.1 41.2 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.1 7.5 9.3 39.8 40.1 34.7 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 14.4 20.7 63.2 42.0 39.9 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.1 12.6 56.7 48.9 42.8 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.5 9.4 39.3 37.1 32.5 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.1 5.2 9.2 38.4 38.8 33.4 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.7 11.2 14.4 52.7 45.2 39.0 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.3 5.8 11.9 46.5 44.9 39.3 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.8 5.1 6.2 35.6 38.6 32.4 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.3 11.4 44.1 44.6 38.1 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.8 10.4 46.5 47.5 39.7 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.5 17.4 19.5 58.7 44.1 40.3 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.0 5.1 8.9 38.1 41.7 35.4 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------