***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.5 29.9 0.3 53.1 55.5 28.7 29.3 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.4 30.4 0.6 57.3 61.4 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.0 29.9 0.1 49.9 52.4 28.4 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.4 22.2 27.1 -0.4 46.1 45.6 21.8 22.2 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.9 28.9 27.2 -0.8 36.1 37.8 28.7 29.7 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.4 24.5 -0.8 33.9 36.0 27.4 28.2 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 29.5 29.2 30.5 0.8 64.0 65.4 28.2 28.8 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.4 16.7 24.9 -1.0 32.8 33.9 16.7 17.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.4 28.8 27.8 -0.7 38.4 39.7 28.5 29.2 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.0 25.9 -0.9 35.5 36.2 27.9 29.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.2 28.5 27.0 -0.9 34.2 36.1 28.4 29.1 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.5 27.5 26.3 -0.8 35.2 36.7 27.4 28.2 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 28.4 28.2 26.1 -1.0 31.7 34.2 28.4 29.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.5 27.5 -0.3 44.1 45.1 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 30.3 30.3 29.1 0.1 54.1 52.6 29.7 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.6 29.7 26.7 -0.8 37.4 37.8 29.4 30.4 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 29.1 29.0 30.3 0.9 66.5 66.1 27.7 28.4 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.7 25.3 -0.7 36.9 38.9 27.3 27.9 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.8 30.2 0.5 55.0 58.3 27.7 28.6 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 22.6 22.7 22.6 -1.1 29.8 31.2 23.0 23.4 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.3 28.9 28.9 -0.5 40.7 42.3 28.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.1 29.9 0.7 63.2 62.9 27.8 28.8 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.8 29.8 0.3 54.4 56.4 28.2 28.7 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 28.7 28.4 27.4 -0.4 41.1 43.5 27.6 28.7 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.3 28.0 -0.3 43.8 45.8 28.9 29.8 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 26.1 -0.6 39.5 40.0 28.4 29.0 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 29.1 28.9 29.1 0.2 51.6 54.2 28.3 28.9 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 30.1 29.8 27.6 -0.4 46.2 45.2 29.6 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.7 24.2 -0.8 34.1 36.5 22.6 23.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.2 30.2 0.5 54.7 58.8 28.0 29.1 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------